How we jumped Boise State in the BCS standings

The latest version of the Bowl Championship Series rankings were released yesterday, and to the delight and surprise of Frog Nation, TCU was sitting nicely at No. 6.

Several outlets, including USA Today, listed the Frogs as the week's biggest winners, not just for the 38-7 beatdown the Frogs put on the BYU Cougars, but also for jumping two spots in the BCS standings. Most notably, TCU hopped over Boise State, the Frogs' primary threat to a BCS bowl. The Broncos dropped from fourth to seventh.

If both win out, the TCU/Boise race figures to become a BCS controversy-within-a-controversy, as schedule strength, margin of victory and conference respectability will be dissected daily. Since both teams play in a league without an automatic BCS bid, only the higher ranked of the two will be guaranteed a spot.

But as Coach Gary Patterson would be quick to point out, there is still almost half a season left to play and much could change. The teams very likely will trade spots each week, separated by hundredths of a point, based on how their opponents fare. The Broncos may well wind up with the single most impressive win (Oregon), but the Frogs will boast a more successful all-around slate (road wins at Virginia, Clemson and BYU, and a looming home date with No. 19 Utah).

For now, though, the Frogs are on top. Here's a look at how it happened:

As you know, the BCS standings are computed by three factors - six computer rankings (with the top five averaged for a composite score), the Coaches Poll, voted on by 59 of the sport's 120 coaches (including Patterson and Boise's Chris Petersen, and Harris Poll, which surveys 114 randomly selected former coaches, players, administrators and current and former media.

The computers

The computers like TCU, improving the Frogs' average rank from eighth to fourth while downgrading Boise from fifth to eighth. TCU is ranked fourth by two (Anderson & Hester and Peter Wolfe), and fifth by three others (Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix and Kenneth Massey). Jeff Sagarin's rating has TCU eighth. In the BCS formula, the lowest ranking is thrown out, leaving the Frogs' computer rating at fourth.

Boise, however, is all over the map. Sagarin ranks the Broncos fourth, while Billingsley and Massey have them sixth. Wolfe ranks them eighth, Anderson & Hester 10th and the Colley Matrix 11th. Toss out the low one.

The bottom line is that the computer average leaves TCU with a .11 lead on the Broncos. Seems small as a decimal, but it's a significant advantage, to which the Frogs will cling.

The voters

Analyzing the pollsters is the more interesting trend. Boise entered the season ranked 16th (542 points) to the Frogs 17th (461 points) in the coaches poll. With an early victory over Oregon, Boise jumped to 11th (803 points) while the idle Frogs stayed 16th (543 points). A deficit of 81 votes ballooned to 260 in a week.

By the Sept. 27 poll, Boise had climed to fifth, with Frogs in 10th, trailing by 216 points. A month later, the Broncos are still fifth, but TCU is on their heels in 6th and now only trail by 21 points.

Week 4 - Sept 27

Boise 5th 1144 points 216 lead

TCU 10th 928 points

Week 5 - Oct 4

Boise 6th 1133 points (loss of 11) 168 lead

TCU 9th 965 points (gain of 37)

Week 6 - Oct 11

Boise 6th 1170 points (gain of 37) 191 lead

TCU 8th 979 points (gain of 14)

Week 7 - Oct 18

Boise 5th 1153 points (loss of 17) 84 lead

TCU 7th 1069 points (gain of 90)

Week 8 - Oct 25

Boise 5th 1152 points (loss of 1) 21 lead

TCU 6th 1131 points (gain of 62)

In the Harris poll, released after the first four weeks of the season, TCU has gained on Boise significantly. The Frogs have trimed a 606-point Bronco margin to 154.

Week 4 - Sept 27
Boise 5th 2264 points 606 lead
TCU 11th 1658 points

Week 5 - Oct 4
Boise 5th 2245 points (loss of 19) 472 lead
TCU 10th 1773 points (gain of 115)

Wk 6 - Oct 11
Boise 5th 2274 points (gain of 29) 469 lead
TCU 10th 1805 points (gain of 32)

Wk 7 - Oct 18
Boise 5th 2289 points (gain of 15) 274 lead
TCU 8th 2015 points (gain of 210)

Wk 8 - Oct 25
Boise 5th 2273 points (loss of 16) 154 lead
TCU 7th 2119 points (gain of 114)

Final analysis

TCU's lead over the Broncos is far from safe, BCS analyst Jerry Palm told the Associate Press.

"If those two teams keep winning, it's going to go down to the wire," Palm said, who owns and operates CollegeBCS.com.

Palm said the computer ratings are volatile early in the season.

"Boise took a beating for playing Hawaii (2-5). At the end of the year, TCU is not going to be four spots ahead of Boise in the computers," he said.

Ultimately, Palm said, the poll voters will decide between Boise State and TCU.

"Nobody should be making travel plans yet," he said. "TCU is there this week but long-term they have to get better in the polls or they're not going to stay."

"Keep in mind, this probably isn't permanent. A lot can change. We're showing the computers are fickle. TCU gained a lot in the coaches' poll, but not enough in the Harris poll. The computers mean more now because fewer games have been played. But by the end of the season, they won't have as much of an impact. TCU needs to gain more in the polls. If I'm TCU, I'm disappointed in the Harris voters."

Don't mistake Palm's thoughts for a guy who doesn't believe TCU can be this season's BCS buster. He does think TCU will end up ahead of Boise State if both go undefeated. He just thinks it will be very close and could come down to the final weekend.

"If you made me go to Vegas and bet on it, I'd bet on the Frogs," Palm said. "It's just not a sure thing."

Palm said what would help TCU's poll numbers is for Iowa or Cincinnati to lose. "They are taking votes away from TCU," Palm said.